Is Ethanol Cost Effective?

From Clean Air Choice, this link presents a comparison cost of E85 to Unleaded.

Consider the following:
1)Ethanol contains approximately 76% of the energy as gasoline (see below)
2)Ethanol's Return on Energy is approximately 1.24:1. That means that the BTU expended yields approximately 24% more BTU.

ETHANOL BY THE NUMBERS
Energy for Ethanol (100%) EEtOH = 75,700.00 BTU/Gallon
Energy for Gasoline (100%) EGAS = 115,000.00 BTU/Gallon

Energy in E85 (Ethanol Content Ranges from 70% to 85%)
EE85 = [(0.85 * EEtOH + 0.15 * EGAS) +(0.70 * EEtOH + 0.30 * EGAS)] / 2
EE85 = 84,542.50 BTU/Gallon

Energy in Blended Gasoline
EPUMPGAS = 0.10 * EEtOH + 0.90 * EGAS
EPUMPGAS = 111,070.00 BTU/Gallon

Comparison of Blended Gasoline to E85
Efficiency of E85 = EE85 / EPUMPGAS
Efficiency of E85 = 76%

This evaluation reflects the energy that is available for the automobile to consume. For E85 to break even with gasoline is must cost at least 24% less for the economics to be attractive. The following factors in that the Return on Energy for EtOH is

Equivalent Cost of Fuel based on Energy
Gasoline $2.85
E85 $2.17

FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION

1 gallons of E85 = 84,542.50 BTU
Fossil Fuel Energy Expended = 68,179.44 BTU
1 gallon Gasoline = 111,070.00 BTU

Based on equivalent energy: 1.31 Gallons E85 = 1 Gallon Gasoline

1.31 (Gallon E85/Gallon Gasoline Equiv E85) * 68,179.44 BTU Fossil Fuels
= 89,572.58 BTU Fossil Fuels / Gallon of Gasoline Equivalent E85

FOOD FOR THOUGHT

Hank the Tank!

I have created a new blog for Henry. His pictures can be seen here.

Henry's imminent arrival

Katherine's water broke this morning at 1:50am. She had her first contraction at 2:23am. I will post again after Henry makes his debut.

One down, one to go!

One month ago I discovered that I passed my P.E. exam and do not have to worry about that exam ever again. Now I am preparing for my P.G. exam. The P.G. exam is on March 2, 2007 which is three days before Henry's due date. I hope that my head is in the right place considering I will likely be distracted because Katherine could go into labor at any minute while I am taking the exam, or a Henry will be at home and I am sure that I'll be thinking about him.

Nursery (Part II)

It has been a long (and hectic) time since my last post. Since the prior post, we have brought the nursery to a more final point.

(Two)Weekend Nursery Project.

Over the past few weekends, we have been trying to get the nursery setup for Henry's pending arrival. We decided to paint a two-tone room with a wavy separation and stars stenciled near the celing. This turned into a much more ambitious project than we thought. In the end, I think it turned out well. We stripped and painted the dresser shown in the pictures as well. Here it is:

Cycling is NOT the most drugged-up sport!

I took the following statistics from a Chicago Tribune article titled:
The real doping crisis: billiards

Apparently baseball players use drugs at about the same rate as cyclists...

Billiards: - 9.96% - 28 positives out of 281 tests
Golf: - 5.21% - 20/384
Bandy: - 3.94% - 8/203
Cycling: - 3.78% - 482/12,751
Baseball: - 3.69% - - 390/10,580
Motorcycle Racing: 3.23% - 12/372
Underwater sports: 3.22% - 12/373
Boxing: - 3.14% - 83/2433
Triathlon: - 3.14% - - 74/2,170
Archery: - 2.94% - 25/850
Ice Hockey: - 2.87% - 79/2,751
Rugby: - 2.46% - 113/4,601
Orienteering: - 2.09% - 10/479
Volleyball: - 2.06% - 54/2161
Weightlifting: - 2.50% - 146/5842
Athletics: - 1.67% - 342/20,464
Football (Soccer): 1.46% - 343/23,478
55.2% of all Adverse Analytical Findings were Anabolic agents
(43.4%) or stimulants.
60.7% of AAF for Anabolic agents the identified substance was
Testosterone.

Thanksgiving Hybrid Drive

Over Thanksgiving, I drove the Camry Hybrid to MN from Chicago and back. It was a really confortable drive and we averaged about 37.5 mpg. Compared to our Oldsmobile Aurora, this represents an advantage of 12.5 mpg. Our typical driving accounts for approximately 1,000 miles over a MN weekend saving a total of 13.3 gallons of gasoline. At $2.25/gallon, we saved $30 on this one trip. That certainly doesn't make a huge dent in the $400+ payement for the car, but it represents about a 7% advantage vs. driving a similarly priced vehicle for the same money. For instance, a similarly equipped Chrysler Sebring sedan costs about $1,000 less than the Camry.

Extrapolating an estimated $30/month savings if the vechicle were driven 1,000 miles/month at $2.25/gallon at optimum efficiency. So, that means that one can easily justify a $1,500 hybrid "premium" based on a monthly vehicle budget that includes fuel and vehicle payment. Tack on the Hybrid tax credit ($2,600 when I purchased), and it is a no-brainer. This also assumes a balance of city and highway driving.

The other element to consider is that I drove a Chevy Cobalt for several days after our Aurora was destroyed and I averaged 19.5 mpg in that small car because of the amount of city driving that I do regularly. I am now routinely averaging 37.5 mpg regardless of highway or city driving.

The factors that are often overlooked when considering a hybrid is that the hybrid "premium" is financed over several years so you need to capture your monthly outlay, not how many gallons of gas equate to the assumed "premium". Toyota leads the industry in resale, and due to the overwhelming demand for hybrids, their depreciation is lowest in the automotive industry. There is actually less wear and tear on the breaks and engine, resulting in a lower overall cost of maintenance....fewer air filters, brake jobs, fuel filters, etc. The added maintenance component is the electrical hybrid systems, which has proven reliable over the past 6 years in the Prius, and the only battery problems that have occured is from people that have modified their systems, and the manual systems employed by Honda.

Anywho, I like Hybrids!

Racism

While my wife and I were walking the dog this morning, a neighbor dog, Jo-Jo really wanted to play with my dog Cosmo. Jo-Jo was busy taking care of his morning business, and we walked by. Jo-Jo about a minute later came tearing down the alley to visit Cosmo, but we had turned a corner and Jo-Jo lost sight of Cosmo. Jo-Jo proceeded to visit a woman at the end of the alley who happened to be African-american. This woman gave me a look of death and began to scold me about my loose dog. A moment later Jo-Jo's mom, who happens to be African-american, came running after Jo-Jo. The woman that Jo-Jo ran after stopped her rant said "Oh, that's your dog (directed to Jo-Jo's mom), not your dog (directed to me)" and then proceded calmly to work. Strange that me and my wife would get a more hostile reaction than Jo-Jo's mom...Could it be racism?

RNCC Bag O' Tricks

I found this after hearing from a coworker who lives in Illinois 6th Congressional district that she was recieving a barrage of phone calls from the Democratic candidate Tammy Duckworth. Apparently, the NRCC has, in several states, paid for automated calls to people that identify that they are calling with information about a democratic candidate, then go into a "smear" of that candidate, followed by the identification of the NRCC. These calls are intended to be annoying and occur at deliberate incovenient times for the recipient. In the case of my coworker, she is a registered Democrat, and is recieving annoying calls from someone she is going to vote for anyway. Seems crazy, huh? I am not a campaigner, but I would certainly not focus on bringing out the vote of someone registered with the party, I would focus on those that could be convinced to vote for the candidate I was supporting.

Whe she has recieved the calls, she has answered the call, discovered it is political in the introduction, and has hung up believing the call is from the Duckworth campaign. She was taken aback when I pointed this issue out to her.

Perhaps the US needs to adopt Canada's approach to limit any campaigning in the 72hrs preceding the election. Then, perhaps these underhanded schemes would give people breathing room before the vote to focus on the issues versus the emotion.

Commentary on Energy and Environment

What I expect/hope to see if the mid-term elections result in a re-balance of power (i.e., more dems elected) with respect to energy and environment:

We will begin to pursue real initiatives for alternative energy. Hopefully Prop 87 will pass in California, resulting in additional cost for Crude Oil. This proposition, if passed, will be a catalyst for other states to do the same. The tax on crude ranges from 1.5% to 6% based on the cost of crude. The lower tax range is during times of low crude price and the higher range for high crude cost. This tax pool is to fund alternative energies. From a broader economic perspective, the US has thrived on innovation and highly educated, highly compensated jobs. A fundamental problem with "exporting" low-skill jobs overseas is not that we are exporting jobs. The problem lies in the fact that we are not replacing those low-skilled jobs with things that we do best, innovation and education.

Imagine that we fund high technology ventures and education. Perhaps we will have the opportunity to let others do what they do best (low skill, for a low wage) while we focus on what we do best, (high skill for a high wage). The clearly evident avenues for this to occur is with respect to environmental resources such and water, agriculture, and energy. These are critical because of the ever expanding global population that will inevitably put significant stress on these resources. (An academic exercise from college place the global carrying capacity of the earth at 9 billion people, a number I expect to see in my lifetime). Water purification technology and infrastructure, more efficient and sustainable energy use, and more efficient and sustainable agricultural practices present opportunities for the US to be a world leader.

Like I have stated before: Being green should no longer have a "tree-hugger" connotation. Being green is becoming the backbone of financial decisions.

The rate of adoption to "being green" should be encouraged from a broader governmental push with incentives and regulation. With that said, I believe the US should mandate ISO 14000 on imported goods. This would address two problems: the export of manufactuing (because the environmental conditions to do business would be similar to a US corporation), and serve to limit pollution globally. The US is the biggest world consumer of goods, why then do we import manufactured goods that are subject to less stringent environmental regulation than if they were manufactured domestically, while we decry domestic polluters? Is this NIMBYism or lack or care for the environment?

Disowning the Vikings, and adopting the Bears

I have been a lifelong fan of the Vikings. Now, after living in the Chicago area for four years, I think this will be the year that I root for the Bears. Why now? Well, when a team is winning it makes it easier to get to know the players and want to wish them well. I have been able to watch more Vikings games this year than any other of my 4 years in Chicago. I have always wanted to watch every Vikings games and have only seen a few, while the Bears are on every week. I feel as though I am Cubs fan when I sit watching the Vikes (they lose by self destruction -make stupid plays, and get penalized left and right). In years past, my favorite teams have been the Vikings and anyone playing the Packers. This year, I will be torn when I watch the Bears play the Vikes. Right now, I think I am going to root for the Bears this year and years to come.

Sorry it has had to come to this Vikes...

P.S. For baseball I still love the Twins and have never wanted to become a Cubs or Sox fan, and I think that the departure of the North Stars ruined me as a pro hockey fan.

P.G. Exam

Now that I have completed my P.E. Exam, I will be moving on to the Professional Geologist examination. I will have three months to prepare for that exam which will be held on March 2, 2007. I really hope that I pass my P.E. Exam so that I do not have to concern myself with taking the P.G. and retaking the P.E. at the same time in the spring...with a new baby.

The P.G. Exam will likely be more difficult than the P.E. Exam because Illinois proctors the Fundmentals of Geology at the same time as the Principals of Geology. For Engineering, one takes the Fundamentals of Engineering Exam (8hr Exam) in college and then the P.E. (another 8hr exam) after completing the work experience requirements.

Since I will be taking the F.G. component approximately 5 years outside of my academic Geology education, I have a lot of material to refresh on (Petrology, Minerology, Paleontology, Geomorphology, and other stuff that is rarely used in environmental geology). In most states, testing for the P.G. is a new requirement and the majority of P.G.s are licensed in Illinois by "grandfathering". The problem with this scenario is that it will take a generation of P.G.s licensed by examination for the credential to have merit. Even P.G.s consider the licensure weak because of new standards for examination. P.G.s also do not have a strong governmental lobby like Engineers. This has allowed most of the signatory requirements for documents to fall under the purview of P.E.s, while it is often as or more appropriate for a P.G. to sign a document.

PE Exam

I have been preparing for and will sit for my Professional Engineering examination tomorrow. Passing this test (fingers crossed) will be a significant milestone for me in my career. It can lead to a significant bump in salary...if all works out well. And, it will allow me to sign-off on engineering drawings/opinions/workplans and other stuff. It becomes valuable for any employer because I take personal liability in stamping documents. I have hear others say that as soon as you stamp your first document, you will be in a courtroom in the next two-years. Let's hope that when my time comes for the courtroom, it will be to poke holes in others work and not the reverse.

Wish me luck!

UPDATE:
The exam consisted of two, four hour sections that are open book. The first section was more computational and a "hide and seek" type of exam; that is, I would read the problem and search through reference books to find an answer. I went to the exam with a minimalist approach, only bringing about 6 references. Some people were bringing in multiple milk-crates full of books. (...In my opinion, a reference is only good if you are somewhat familiar with that reference. How could anyone be familiar with 20 difference texts?...) The second section was more along the lines of work realted problems and was the type of information that you could not look up in books and you had to answer based on practical work experience. I walked away from the exam feeling confident, and that may be a problem. I say that because when I was in college and left an exam with confidence, I would get dope-slapped with a "C" or something much worse than I thought I would get. I will find out in January if my confidence is appropriate or an indication that I need to take the exam again.

Latest Ultrasound (ITS A BOY)

My wife and I just got back from out visit at the doctor's office. The first view of the baby revealed the obvious...It's A Boy!

See...just look at where the arrow is pointing.

Top Picture: Feet
Top Center: Face and Elbows
Bottom Center: Face/Abdomen (Profile)
Bottom: ITS A BOY!

A recent trip down the Chicago River when my niece came to visit

Recipe for professional disaster...

This is from a recent conversation, and is a general commentary on why some people advance professionally while others do not.

"...that is for project mangers to worry about. And I am not paid to be one."

(I quit a job early in my career because over 75% of my coworkers exhibited this attitude. That job was funded by taxpayers while I worked for a State agency- ...tax payer dollars only working as hard as the State employees...)

It seems to me that exhibiting qualities of a project manager will allow you to become one. Shunning responsibility because you "are not paid for it" is a recipe for stagnation.

That statement only serves to distinguish this person as limited in their ability to grow professionally.

New Auto

On Saturday Kat and I ordered a 2007 Toyota Camry Hybrid. This vehicle is much more roomy than either Kat and I thought it would be. Because of the timing of our order we will be able to take delivery of the car in time to take advantage of the $2,600 tax credit that becomes $1,300 beginning in October. Funny thing about Toyota is that they have one of the highest resale values of cars on the road and the demand is such that MSRP is the price you have to pay. Used hybrids do not make any sense to buy unless you need the car immediately. The tax credit makes a new purchase more attractive than a used vehicle purchase. The best part is that the rated mileage is 40city/38hwy. That is fantastic for a mid-size sedan. The average midside sedan mileage rating is 21city/28hwy.

There is really no way to identify the car as a hybrid from the outside of the vehicle (except for a few badges that indicate it is a hybrid). We opted to go with a sedan for the time being and we will likely upgrade to a crossover or SUV once the family grows a little.

New Dinghy

Yesterday was the second time I was able to use my proper dinghy to get to and from my boat. One of the dock dwellers "the Mayor" was hosting a party and a friend of Katherine's joined us. When we were getting ready to return to shore, Kat and I boarded the dinghy (with Cosmo the dog and Bailel the dog) and I told Kat's friend to step in the middle of the dinghy. She misinterpreted these instruction to step on the side of the dinghy and sit on the side of the dinghy. We all became very wet imediately after the boarding mishap. Kat and I swam out from under the boat while her friend came up underneath the dinghy. Both dogs were trapped under the boat and Kat was able to reach under and grab Bailey. Kat couldn't find Cosmo and became very upset. Also, because Kat is pregnant everyone on the dock was most concerned about getting her out of the water. Cosmo is deathly afraid of water and being trapped under the dinghy had to be the most traumatic experience of his life. When I looked under the dinghy to see if he was okay, he had climbed to the underside of one of the seats and he had a white-knuckled death grip on the seat. I figured that I had better not try to remove him from his perch because he was so terrified...the added fear of going into the water would have probably cost me skin underneath his nails. We righted the dingy and everyone came away okay. We did lose the use of our cell phones and Kat may have lost the use of her iPod.

Lessons Leared: The least experienced boater enters the dinghy first. Step in the middle of the dinghy. Put small electronics in a watertight container.

update: The iPod was the only piece that surived. It was out of power when it went in, so that is probably why it made it. Both phones have been officially deep-sixed.

Not just a puppy daddy...

I recently discovered that my little puppy will have a new human playmate soon...

To visualize what is on the screen... imagine a "teddy bear" lying sideways inside a jelly bean and you get an idea of the anatomical layout of the baby. It was really neat to hear the heartbeat while this ultrasound was performed.

This little one has already turned out to be a trooper. This image was taken the day after my lovely wife deployed the airbags in the car. The car in front of her slowed her down much faster than the brakes. Now we are in the market for a new car for the fam.

Boring note from author: As much as I despise the big 3 automakers, I find myself looking at Ford products. Specifically the Escape Hybrid. 0% financing and $5k less than the Toyota Highland Hybrid financed at 4.9%.