Friday, November 04, 2005

Time will tell...

As I metioned in this post, I will be focusing my investments with energy in mind, and I would invite anyone interested to perform appropriate due diligence in the following sectors: SOLAR POWER and DC STORAGE.

Why solar? - The sun shines everywhere.
Why DC storage? - Most of the items we use are powered by direct current, and solar power is generated in DC. There are no efficency losses due to the conversion of AC to DC.
Why now? - We are at a period when energy is consumed the least throughout the year. (This provides people with a false sense of security regarding fuel costs)
What do I think? - I think that this winter is going to be a b*tch slap to everyone's wallet regarding their home heating bill. The reserves of oil/natural gas in ANWR are not sufficient to mitigate the effect of growing global demand for carbon based fuels from developing countries (aka China and India).

Q: What does the cost of energy effect? A1: The cost of producing goods. A2: The amount of personal expendable income.
Q: How can you slow the growth of any business? A:Raise the underlying costs of producing goods.
Q: How can you slow the growth of a county? A:Raise the underlying costs of doing business and reduce the ability of the consumer to spend.
Q: How to NOT slow business and GDP growth? A:Get off of carbon based fuels.

These connections are as elemetary as possible, but crucial (hopefully the White House will draw the same conculsions - although not likely because of the oil men in the pilot and co-pilot seat). The time is now to identify the Googles and Microsofts of the alternative energy sector.

My bets are on solar and DC storage.
ESLR - Evergreen Solar - Company requires minimum amount of Si to produce solar cells. This makes them less sensitive to fluctuations in the price of Si.
DSTI - Daystar Technologies - Uses GaAs (Gallium Arsenide) for solar cells. GaAs is more efficient that Si for power production and has a longer lifespan. (Not yet at "production level"; however, implication of full scale production are mind-boggling)
ENER - Energy Conversion Devices - CEO is the inventor of NiMH battery technology. They are also developing solar cells, and they provide batteries to Toyota for gas/electric hybrids.

Being "green" should not have a tree-hugger connotation any longer. Being green is becoming the backbone of economic decisions that are driven by the cost of carbon-based fuels.

As for oil...Keep consuming, it will trigger the incorportion of alternative energies at a faster rate.

Research the following: Ghawar is Dying, Peak Oil, DSTI, ESLR, ENER.

Time will tell...

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